Forex Opinion & Analysis

EUR/USD: Odds Favor At Least A Second Leg Down

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EUR/USD Daily Chart

  • The EUR/USD has six consecutive bear closes, a strong enough breakout that the first reversal up will likely fail and lead to a sideways move at best for the bulls.
  • Yesterday was an inside bar which triggered a L1 short below it. There may be more buying below yesterday’s L1, and the market will soon have a minor pullback.
  • At the moment, the odds favor at least a second leg down after the six bear bar micro channel.
  • The problem for the bears is that this is a strong bear micro channel late in a bear trend which increases the odds of exhaustion soon and the market testing up to the September 20 high.
  • Bulls need to begin showing signs of strength here before traders will agree that the market is going up to the September 20 close.
  • Overall, there are probably sellers above, and the market will likely have to go sideways after a reversal up that is likely to be minor.

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