Market Overview

EUR/USD’s Rally Continues

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EUR/USD Daily Chart

  • The EUR/USD continues to rally in a small pullback bull trend.
  • The bears are not yet doing enough to convince traders that they are strong enough to convert the market into a trading range.
  • While the odds favor this small pullback trend soon converting into a trading range, it is important to be patient. Small pullback trends can last a very long time and rally for more bars than what seems likely.
  • What I have been saying about the weekly chart still holds true. That has been in a tight bear channel since mid-2021. The rally from October 2022 was the first strong trendline break of the bear channel.
  • Typically, bear channels convert into trading ranges and not bull trends. This means that as strong as the rally looks on the weekly chart, the market will likely have to have a deep pullback, at least to the 1.0500 price level, and form a higher low major trend reversal.
  • While the rally on the weekly chart may be a major reversal (V-Bottom) that will not form a higher low major trend reversal, the odds are against it.


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