Forex Opinion & Analysis

NZD/USD: A Break Below 6190 Is A Sell Signal

AUD/USD has minor resistance at 6950/70 again today (a high for the day exactly here yesterday). A break above 6980 meets strong resistance at 7020/30. Shorts need stops above 7055. I cannot see a support level where I would attempt along anywhere above the May/June low of 6850/27. A break below 6810 however signals further losses to 6760/50.

NZD/USD has key support at 6230/10 (a low for the day just 11 pips above here yesterday). Longs need stops below 6190. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 6100/6080. We should have strong resistance at 6390/6410. Shorts need stops above 6430.

USD/JPY with a break higher which holds above 135.55 triggers a buy signal targeting 136.40/60 and 136.90/99, perhaps as far as 137.40/50 this week. We have important support at 135.55/35 (with a low for the day 12 pips above yesterday). Longs need stops below 135.15. A break lower means this may be a false break higher and we will wait for Friday’s weekly close to gauge direction in to next week.

EUR/JPY tests the June high at 144.15/25. Holding this area (a high for the day here yesterday) forms a double top sell signal. However, bear in mind that USD/JPY beat the previous high yesterday, so there does appear to be continued weakness in the yen. A sustained break above 144.30 should be a buy signal. With no sell signal yet, the downside should be limited with minor support at 143.40/20 and strong support at 142.5/65. Longs need stops below 142.45.

EUR/USD is seeing a low for the day at support at 1.0460/50 with a recovery through minor resistance at 1.0545/55 to hold at last week’s high at 1.0600/01. The market is drifting without direction for 4 days. A break higher, however, could make it as far as resistance at 1.0660/62. Minor support at 1.0460/50 could hold the downside again today. Below 1.0430 however risks a retest of the double bottom low at 1.0360/50. Longs need stops below 1.0325.

USD/CAD shot higher to the target of 1.2995/99. Gains are likely to be limited but above 1.3010 can target 1.3030. Failure to beat 1.3000 increases the chance of the head & shoulders forming, with neck line at 1.2930/20. A break below 1.2910 is a sell signal initially targeting 1.2870/60. We could pause here but longs look risky. A break below 1.2850 risks a slide to 1.2800.

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